A lot of people say Poker is all luck but the simple fact that there are people that

are professional players point that is a false assumption, I mean how many pro

bingo players are there? Poker it a game of odds and mind games. In Poker there

are only 52 cards in the deck, certain hands beat other hands and the odds of events

happening can be calculated. In the game Texas holdem Poker some of the basic odds are that

70% of the time your 2 unpaired hole cards will not make a pair on the flop (first 3 field cards)

and that is true for everybody in the hand. After the flop you can calculate your odds of

making your hand by using the rule of 2 and 4. If your have 4 cards to a flush on flop

are 34% (14 outs or the remaining cards of your suit in the deck) times 4. This is assuming

that nobody else has your suited cards in the deck of course. If you miss your flush draw card

then the river or last card reduces your odds down to 17%. This information can also be

used by you to place bets that make your opponents cost to call mathematically unsound.

This will not deter some people because of their chip stack and what is called pot odds.

Poker pot odds are what you may win if your hand wins in the end. So if you have a big stack

you can afford to ignore the table odds and play the pot odds. The complexity in poker is almost

endless, forcing folds, playing position, bluffing, semi bluffing and even getting lucky.

Luck exists in poker, even if your a 90% favorite in the hand just means that 9 times out of 10

you will win, but not 100%. Poker is a great game of mathematical and mental skill, give

it a try at www.pokerstars.com and expand your horizons.

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i love playing tourney poker, the “8″ game. I just cant seem to read folks these days. Free rolls ar even crazier, but oh well good fun. I will find my game again, hopefully soon. Poker stars does have a huge selection of free rolls and promotions, check them out.

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Sanctuary

After working in the boat business as a tool maker and then later in the graphic arts business I ended up in a dental lab to learn lost wax investment casting. I was also reading a great deal about Buckminster Fuller as well as Jung and the result was the Sanctuary. In the late 70’s hot tubs and spas were just becoming the thing to have in your home, starting the new trend of remodeling the bathroom to make it a home spa. Kohler had introduced the Environment a built in unit that was just big enough for 1 person that had “rain, wind, sun and music”. The Environment was hugely expensive costing over $25,000 (in 1979!) but it was making some sales.

 

Jung had a theory about return to the womb, and Fuller had shown that a sphere was the most space efficient and energy efficient shape, so I decided to see what they might do in combination while all providing of the features of the Kohler unit. The result was the Sanctuary, an 8’ sphere that was self contained, for use outdoors and ran off a single 115 volt supply. This system removed the need for remodeling, wiring, and plumbing. The unit was constructed of a vacuumed formed acrylic inner and outer skin with 4 inches of poly urethane foam giving its super insulation and allowing it to be used any where. Among its feature it had heat lamps, sun lamps, hot air, steam, reading lights,  and stereo system all run by a remote control. The Sanctuary also had a full width redwood loft large enough for 2 and seating for up to 6 on the lower level giving it far more utility than the Kohler unit. The Sanctuary also had a very unique feature that keyed into it’s out door installation a polarized sky light. This skylight allow for the one guaranteed great view no matter where you lived, city, country, or suburbia and that view is straight up. The polarization allowed people to control the amount of light into the Sanctuary from opaque to transparent with unlimited steps in-between so you could have it full dark in the day, or see the stars at night. The skylight also guaranteed privacy as the spherical shape made it very difficult to climb onto. 

 

The prototype was built and tested; people loved it showing that Jung may have been right. The ability to adjust the internal environment was empowering as well as the shape seemed calming.  It was a great place to relax in solitude or entertain a few close friends. It could operate much like a Finnish sauna in the winter time and the cooling systems allowed for enjoyable use even on the hottest days of summer. The relaxing effect was so dynamic that after tying it a clinical psychologist requested its use in testing. The tests, using EEG, and ECG showed that just sitting in the Sanctuary increased the production of theta waves over and above expectation as well as lower heart rate and blood pressure. The product also showed very well at trade shows and numerous dealer inquires were fielded. We built a business plan, the first one for me but an experience that would be valuable over the years. Patents were applied for and granted so it appeared all was in place. The plan was good; the financials made great sense however timing could not have been worse with the Arab oil embargo, stagflation and the prime rate up to 20%. We could never get the working capital to go into production and so the project was abandoned even though year’s later people still talk about it.

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Architectural and engineering models

In the 1970’s in high school it came to my attention that architects and engineers used models as part of their design and sales process, and as I had been building models from plans for years for fun it seemed like a better job than working in a gas station. I had the ability in my senior year of high school to take a day off or so during the week so I drew up lists of the various architectural firms in town and went and made sales pitches to them using some models of mine to showcase my ability. I garnered some compliments and the suggestion that I think about becoming an architect. In sum my major appeal I offered besides being local was that I worked cheap.

 

My first job took months of constant pestering to land but the client was happy with the outcome and lead to other models culminating in the largest project of that phase of my life and one of the largest such models in the country. Spokane was hosting a world expo in 1973 and at that time models were used extensively as a design tool for both the building and site layout as computers were very rare. I was hired to build the model for the site in all details from buildings, lighting, paving, colors and plantings. This was a very large model encompassing the total site and some of the surrounding areas it measured 8 feet wide by 24 feet long. The base was panagraph cut foam showing the basic elevations of the site giving the designers a starting point.

 

Over the ensuing period of months I would get the blue prints for the various buildings and layouts from all the architects that were involved both here and over seas I would then proceed to build the model to match the design. On a daily basis the local designers would come buy and review what the site looked like, then sign off or redesign a building or area based on the 3d representation. This often entailed working late into the night to complete the change orders and during the final 3 months I lived there only coming home every other day to shower.

 

The model was completed 1 week before the Expo opened, its job done as a design tool it was presented to the city of Spokane and to this day is exhibited in city hall as a reminder of the summer the world came to Spokane. I am very proud of my participation in the project and was given the rare honor of being included in a mural that was painted on one of the building showing all the architects involved in the site design, I was the only non architect/engineer so honored. 

 

Other models followed and only deserve short mention; the Hexplex model was unique in that it showed an apartment complex in cut away form complete down to the wiring in the walls. This large scale model was used as a sales tool by the developers as a way of making the customers comfortable with a very unconventional design for that time. I went on to work as a engineering model maker for Bechtel in San Francisco on nuclear power plants, again as even for Bechtel computers were not up to the task of system integration. I carried a Q clearance, quite rare as our group were one of the only ones that had all total access to all the blue prints to the power plant. Our job was to build exactly as designed to scale and high tolerance and then report interferences or problem areas to the appropriate staffs. In the end I decided that it was a dead end job and decided to move back to Spokane and start designing products on my own.

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This is the story of one product evolution from idea, through design, prototype and finally production. You might notice how the idea came, how the initial design was flawed but then solved in prototype. The path from idea to reality is full of branches, some in market position, some in design detail and others in production. I hope you enjoy this story of the little trailer that almost did.

Alpha trailer

In the process of walking around the InterBike trade show I happened upon a booth selling bicycle trailers. These trailers are used for hauling children or cargo, I was surprised at how primitive they were and the high price they were getting. These current units were bent alloy tube and tent fabric giving light weight but no structure and an appearance of a tent on wheels. I talked to a few people and learned that they were selling a lot of them and the market was growing so I decided that this might be a good market to have a look at.

 

I borrowed an existing unit from a local dealer and did an analysis of it as well as some testing and came up with some key features that I felt would provide some real benefits. The use of suspension was a hot button in bicycling then as now and I knew from racing sports cars that an unsuspended vehicle was not only less comfortable for the passenger but also less stable. I did a simple test with the borrowed unit loading it to the weight of one child and running over a 2×4 to simulate a pot hole or rock in the roadway. The result was even more impressive than expected; the trailer wheel jumped up a full 6 inches off the ground and if the pothole was encountered during a turn would cause the trailer and child to flip over. I knew that a 2 inch deep pot hole was not that uncommon even in the city and given that the trailer wheels were outside of the path the bicycle the rider may not even notice one coming up and avoid it.

 

I decided to develop a simple adjustable suspension system for the bicycle trailer with safety and comfort as the key consumer benefits. After looking at and experimenting with a number of systems I decided on a simple trailing arm axle with 3 elastrometric bands on an arm for the suspension medium and adjustment. This suspension system drove the rest of the product design with its vacuumed formed hull giving better seating and safety as well as fully enclosed wheels. The prototype was built and the initial testing proceeded to validate the safety and comfort aspects. In testing not only would the trailer stay stable and not tip even when encountering a 6 inch deep pot hole but the ride was so comfortable that younger children tended to fall asleep while being towed, something that did not happen in the other trailers.

 

In trial use other features that could be added made themselves apparent.  One of the purported uses of the bike trailers was to go some place with the children and then do something else, like go to the store or park. It was obvious that with my design the inclusion of a caster font wheel would in effect make the trailer a stroller when uncoupled from the bike. This gave far more utility and also prevented the bike trailer from being stolen when the riders were away. This added feature required engineering of a new type of universal bicycle attachment that facilitated easy decoupling. This was accomplished in due course with out violating any existing patents and tested. The test group really liked the new features and benefits as well as the automotive look of the product that exuded higher value. The perception was it was safer for the child and much more user friendly for the parents.

 

After considering approaching the existing trailer companies and factoring in the new design utilized very different production methods I decided to sell the license to the product to a startup company for a royalty and license fee with the agreement that I would bring the product to market for them. This proceeded well even though I had misgivings as to their ability to garner sufficient capital to execute the project properly.

 

The production design began with some modifications to the original design to allow for easy vacuum forming of the product and higher usability of the top. The new top had not only a wind screen but a bug screen that could be quickly attached as well as a transparent rain cover. This high visibility not only kept the children happy but also gave piece of mind to the parent who could look back and see their child. Production development was almost complete when we decided that we could offer as an option a “jogger” package. This package consisted of a plug in push bar and a plug in 16” front wheel with hand brake supplanting the small castor wheel. The product was now complete and production prototypes were built and readied for the InterBike trade show. The production unit had these features and benefits.

 

Features                                                         Benefit

Monocoque body with full roll cage               Better support, forward facing children

Adjustable suspension with 4” travel                  Comfort and safety

Dual 3 point safety harness                                1 or 2 children high security

Wheel fairing                                                    Spokes away from children reduces spray

Stroller wheel                                                   Convents to stroller with one pin

3 axis hitch                                                       Trailer stays level even if bike falls

Font load seating                                              Easy access to children

Panoramic windows                                          Children are happy and you can see them

Rain fly bug screen                                            All weather adaptable

Jogger conversion                                             Higher utility no tools needed.

Easy storage                                                     3 pins and wheels and top fit into body for

                                                                        easy storage or transport.

 

The Alfa trailer was judged to be one of the top 10 most innovative products of the 1993 InterBike trade show and we had many dealers signing up, later the Alfa was also the only bike trailer to be approved for use on public roads in Germany.

 

Production problems ensued compounded by the inexperience of the startup company and it’s under capitalization. The problems were compounded when the licensing company in violation of its contract with me did not proceed with patent protection allowing for competitors to replicate key features into their own products. The net effect was the company folded but many of the key features pioneered by the Alfa are on bicycle trailers to this day, the stroller ability, hard shell body, panoramic view, and suspension and jogger conversion.

 

The following pictures show the evolution of the Alfa from foam core mock up through the final production units as delivered world wide.

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Corsa human powered racers.

I went to work as the directors of research and development for fitness equipment called AMEREC/PRECORE a leader in the field of high end home fitness equipment. During my tenure there we were involved in many projects ranging from stationary exercise bikes, rowing machines, treadmills, and weight machines. The owners of the company decided that there was an emerging market in fun fit equipment for children and so we developed a line of ride on toys that had fitness aspects to them. These were very problematic and had major safety issues giving rise to my leaving the company as I would not be involved with that project where safety was an issue. I had designed a recumbent exercise bicycle while there and was aware of its comfort and efficiency and later the type would be come an industry standard but was not pursued by AMEREC at that time.

 

Taking what I had learned at AMEREC/PRECOR that the appearance of the product was very important to commercial success and the increase in bicycle paths in major cities I decided to develop a good looking, fun, practical 3 wheeled recumbent for adults and children. In this project I had a very effective partner in Brent Rosengrant, who not only assisted in the construction and but was instrumental in getting the startup capital. The Corsa was billed as a human powered racer, a human powered go-cart if you will and pioneered some interesting features such as 15 speed planetary gear boxes with the shifters intergraded into the steering side sticks. The Corsa could fit any person from 4’10” to 6’ 5” tall and was extremely comfortable, fast, and a lot of fun. I generated a few design ideas then went ahead and did the mechanical layout of the chassis for test riding. When testing showed the chassis provide a fun, fast ride the body design was mocked up and then the molds and initial fiberglass body panels were built. The finished prototypes were shown to Sharper Image and we garnered an order for 100 giving us a commitment for production but only after we could show them a production Corsa.

 

The design was modifies to allow for vacuumed forming of the body panels and changes to the seating with 6 pre production units being built. These were shown to Sharper Image as well as exhibited at the Out door sports trade show where it garnered a great deal of interest including orders from Hammechler Schlemer and interest from Steven Spielberg for use in his upcoming film Back to the Future part 2, sadly a deal the company that was founded later to produce the Corsa did not act on. The Corsa went on to make the cover of Hammechler Schlemer catalog twice and a spread in Playboy “new hot products” feature as well as being on exhibit at the ArtCenter School of design museum.  There was discussion of production of a small child size unit as the “next” big wheel as well as battery powered units.

 

To finance the production of the preproduction prototypes new and larger investment group was found, however as often happens some of the founders were not deemed necessary to the project and so I was cashed out. This is not uncommon as the original inventors are viewed as dead weight as the product is “done”. The Corsa went on to sell well, it was one of the best selling recumbent cycles for many years but in time the investment group became less enamored of the sales growth and the company was terminated.

Corsa pre production prototypes being readied for trade show in Long Beach.

Corsa prototypes

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The 2ners were a direct outgrowth of my involvement in the bicycle industry and addressed the issue of people riding with ear buds or head phones. There were numerous consumer requests for something that allow rider to experience their music that was safe and comfortable. In the case of cycling this has a serious drawback in that you were isolated from the environment and could not hear approaching autos or safety vehicles. The other problem was that all of the existing units used wires to a remote player/radio making for a problem when removing a helmet or during spirited activity. The few existing head phone type radios were far too bulky to be used in active sports even though some were used in running and jogging but there size and mass made them uncomfortable for use as well as isolating.

 

The 2ners development as all headphone type radio systems do hinged on the question of power requirements and there for the battery size. Providing enough power to give good volume and sound quality over a reasonable amount of time between battery charges or replacements is the key issue. Other systems use AA or AAA batteries and full coverage head phones to achieve the goal but that was obviously not acceptable for this application as they were far larger than desired. The state of micro electronics and speakers however did show that it might be possible. And the solution turned out by utilizing all the available energy both mechanical as well as electronic I could keep the size down.

 

The 2ner used a couple of innovative methods to provide excellent sound quality with minimal energy requirements and these ultimately lead to the ability to package the system small enough for active sports. The product and was a total ground up design entailing electronics, acoustics, packaging, biomechanics and aesthetics. The primary method was utilizing the body of the unit and its circuit board to make a tuned cavity to enhance bass response with bone conductance to further enhance bass. This was achieved  by turning the speaker around so the voice coil enclosure rested on the persons cheek allowed for a much smaller speaker size to be used lowering the amplifier size and limiting the systems power consumption. The other key element was the use of directed speaker ports that aimed the high frequency parts of the sound into a zone of the ear that naturally funnels these frequencies into the inner ear. The shape of the unit provides a wind shield effect reducing the effect of wind noise as well as fitting well with bicycle helmets. The elimination of extraneous features such as a display for station and time was integral to keeping the unit’s size compact.  

 

The full feature FM 88-108 MHz with PLL tuning allowed for its use with available small FM transmitters providing a wireless link from a Discman or MP3 player so the user could listen to their own music not just broadcast radio.

 

I had planned on an evolution of the product with a built in MP3 flash memory chip contained in the right battery box area. This would have given us a lead on many of the majors for ultra small MP3 players and eliminated the need for the transmitter. This follow on product was keyed to be in place after 9 months of sales of the first unit and followed normal product evolutionary product pathways.

 

The unit received good marks from its testers including Wired magazine whom said in their august 2001 issue “The pod’s combination of light weight and clean sound quality-a mere 1.5 oz and a range of 40-20,000 Hz made up for its defects. Revolutionary? Not quite. But 2ners provide an inexpensive wireless alternative to the usual ear buds and clamshell.-Tiffany Lee Brown”.

 

Vann Schaffner had this to say about his 2ners “I’ve been using the 2ners for about two weeks now.  I use them most often bicycling, but also around the house while reading.  I can’t wait to get a transmitter so I can have wireless CD, sometimes the radio get boring. 

 

They are very comfortable and fit nicely under a helmet. They do not affect the helmet fit at all.  My commuting ride is 1 ½ long and I have not noticed any discomfort wearing them that long.  Not only are they comfortable, but they also fit nicely under my balaclava that I wear for cold weather.  The fit is very stable and should work nicely for running or other sports with more up and down motion.

 

The sound is exceptional, very high quality. The sound is equal or superior to a quality pair of headphones. However, with the 2ners, I am able to set the volume so that I can hear the ambient noise, which is very important on a bicycle. I can hear traffic very easily, and I don’t have that sensation of being in a different world.  I am connected by sound to the world around me, but still able to enjoy great music. 

 

The controls are very easy to use, and with a little practice I can easily change the frequency or volume. I can even do it with heavy winter gloves, under the balaclava.  The digital reception also ensures that if I get a weak signal there is none of that maddening static.  No signal, no noise. 

 

The unit is very light, as are the batteries.  I get about 4 round trips to and from work on a charge. The recharge unit is light enough that I have no qualms about taking it along in my backpack.  The batteries are conveniently stored in the recharge case, making a handy unit to carry along.  I think that with a little practice, I can also change the batteries without removing the unit or my helmet.    I’d like to get another battery set, for longer trips.  

 

What else can I say?  I love them, and use them all the time.  After all, what better way to get into a rhythm that some great tunes!”

 

2ner proof of concept prototype with transmitter

 

 

 

Production 2nersproduction2ner

Top 3 pictures are of the production 2ners

Middle left picture is 2ner transmitter. Middle right is the 2ner with battery packs

Bottom left picture is 2ner charger unit and wall brick. Bottom left is a production 2ner

 

The original business model was to sell or license the technology to an operating firm and after doing show and tell to the likes of Nike, Schwinn, and Vetta. In general, selling new products to existing companies revolved around the ability to show consumer acceptance and was the core of the sales resistance from the large firms. We did not expose the product to the large consumer products companies as we were disruptive technology and access to the C level management had always been a challenge.

 

I’ve had some experience with consumer direct response sales via TV (infomercial companies) and knew that they sometimes were willing to do joint ventures on products where they would assist in the startup production of a new item, as well as handling the marketing of the product. We decided to pursue this matter and over the course of 5 meetings, a very lucrative contract was entered into with the infomercial giant Guthy-Renker for joint venture and exclusive distribution.

 

The contact negotiations took months and were a mine field of details concerning minimum annual royalty payments, territories, internet sales, price, cost, and delivery.

 

During this time I contacted two manufacturing companies in Hong Kong for the production of the product and worked with their engineers to bring it into a mass producible state. Also during that time, questions of packaging, instruction manuals, graphics and logo were also addressed by me.

 

 During the normal startup process time of eight months some key decisions at Guthy-Renker had been made and they had decided to stick exclusively with consumable products. This change presented me with two options– I could force them into court to “cure” us as per the contract or proceed to market myself and leave the relationship intact.

 

I then decided that sales via online web site and viral marketing would work. I generated a website for the marketing and sales of the product, and it was selling quite well until the majority partner in the project decided that he would prefer to transfer the technology to a major company.

 

In 2004 (three years after the 2ner introduction), Oakley introduced a sunglass system with a built in MP3 player approximating the size of the 2ner but at a much higher price point. Koss audio and Panasonic both produced a line of headphones using aimed tuned ports to enhance audio experience as was pioneered in the 2ner.

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From the Trenches

 

Editor Tran has invited me to write a column from time to time about design and at first I thought, hey no problem. Well just like when you go from idea to reality the hard work sets in and you realize that what you think is a piece of cake will take some serious work. In choosing this first column, I decided finally after a few drinks that (given the times) a discussion of some of the lessons I have learned over the last 30+ years as a product designer would be in order.  I started out when it was real bad, early 70’s (wiki it) so what’s on the horizon is somewhat familiar. 

 

Ok lessons from the trenches, the musing of a top master sergeant of design and construction (top kicks are the guys/gal’s that is the backbone of an army even a general will give them there due).

 

First lesson

We should be Santa clauses. Ok what that means is what we should strive to do is facilitate our clients wishes into reality. The client may be your boss, some dude with a few bucks or a whole boatload of people but in the end, we must be empathetic to design for THEM not us. Hell, it’s easy as pie to design for ourselves or even other designers. Designing for yourself or your peers is a lot of fun because it’s like karaoke - makes you feel great but it’s not real. Therefore, the mark of a pro is the ability to design for a market and have them find value in it, exchange their sweat (money) for its ownership. If we’re not doing that, it’s just mental masturbation or art, not product design. 

 

Learn your tools and everything around you

Ok you may be the snitz when it comes to womping up a nifty design on the ‘puter but how does it fit into the overall business, if you do not know you do not know enough.  Your job as a real designer is to see and blend all aspects of bringing that product to market. Sounds like a big challenge - it is; takes a lifetime (you never stop learning) so try to learn by talking to everybody in the chain about what their concerns are. I mean everybody from the account, production folk, to the shipping clerk. To be a real designer you have to do the Leonardo thing, know the process from sperm to baby to collage, the whole deal. 

 

Be humble and empathetic

Pretty simple, you may think “oh I am a designer” and look down on some guy in grease stained coveralls out in the tooling floor, but the hard truth is, with out him your just putting ink on a piece of paper so LEAR HIS MIND. The more you know the more you can do. If that guy says “well that’s going to cause us to revamp the bosses and the ejector pins” don’t just flip him/ her off but realize the changes they’re talking about goes to total project cost that may kill your product if you don’t listen. We design shit, it takes 100 has to make it real.

 

Design is risky

You may say “frack it with this corp. BS, I am going indi” and hey I did it myself 30 years ago so let me give you a few heads up if you go that way. Live below your means. It’s simple, your income at best will be fluid so remember you can build what most people desire, so instead of buying, build. The client (gold) is right, only the rich can say FU to a paying client, but also don’t just take any as swipe on. If you think the client is a bad apple, then turn them down and eat Ramen. You are not going to get rich, sorry that is the truth, but you will have a rich life doing interesting things meeting cool people so it’s a trade off.  Never give up, in some respects this profession picks us, not the other way around so just remember not everybody can be front and center on the big stage. A lots of us are just “session musicians” grinding it out, making beauty.

 

Peace from your old top kick zippy flounder.

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